Abstract
This thesis examines the structure and pricing behaviour of the Alberta electricity market, with an emphasis on the 2001 to 2011 period that coincides with the deregulation of wholesale generation and an increased use of wind energy in the province.
A GARCH model is developed to examine what impact the mean and variance of wind has on power prices. Output of this GARCH model suggests that wind levels decrease power prices and that wind generation variance tends to decrease price variance, especially during high priced periods. In-model forecasting exercises demonstrate that this GARCH model outperforms a random walk and moving average in both volatile and non-volatile periods, highlighting the importance of capturing the effects of wind in Alberta power price forecasting, especially as pool prices become more volatile and wind power gains prominence.
