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Title: A Lightweight Approach to Technical Risk Estimation via Probabilistic Impact Analysis
Authors: Walker, Robert J.
Holmes, Reid
Hedgeland, Ian
Kapur, Puneet
Smith, Andrew
Keywords: Computer Science
Issue Date: 15-Feb-2006
Abstract: An evolutionary development approach is increasingly commonplace in industry but presents increased difficulties in risk management, for both technical and organizational reasons. In this context, technical risk is the product of the probability of a technical event and the cost of that event. This paper presents a technique for more objectively assessing and communicating technical risk in an evolutionary development setting that (1) operates atop weaklyestimated knowledge of the changes to be made, (2) analyzes the past change history and current structure of a system to estimate the probability of change propagation, and (3) can be discussed vertically within an organization both with development staff and high-level management. A tool realizing this technique has been developed for the Eclipse IDE.
Appears in Collections:Walker, Robert

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