A Lightweight Approach to Technical Risk Estimation via Probabilistic Impact Analysis
Date
2006-02-15
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Abstract
An evolutionary development approach is increasingly commonplace in
industry but presents increased difficulties in risk management, for both
technical and organizational reasons. In this context, technical risk is the
product of the probability of a technical event and the cost of that event.
This paper presents a technique for more objectively assessing and
communicating technical risk in an evolutionary development setting that (1)
operates atop weaklyestimated knowledge of the changes to be made, (2)
analyzes the past change history and current structure of a system to
estimate the probability of change propagation, and (3) can be discussed
vertically within an organization both with development staff and high-level
management. A tool realizing this technique has been developed for the Eclipse
IDE.
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Keywords
Computer Science