A Comparative Techno-Economic Analysis of Ammonia Production and Export in Western Canada and Australia
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There is world-wide push today to dramatically reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the effects of climate change. In this low carbon future, the demand for traditional hydrocarbons will be significantly reduced. Replacing some of these hydrocarbons with low carbon emissions hydrogen could be a viable alternative for energy storage or energy export, as hydrogen as a fuel source does not emit emissions. This is of relevance to Canada, an important exporter of traditional hydrocarbons. However, there is currently a lack of detailed techno-economic analyses that look at the cost competitiveness of hydrogen from Canada versus other likely hydrogen export candidates, like Australia. This gap is addressed by completing a detailed techno-economic analysis of the export of hydrogen as ammonia to Japan from Canada or Australia that compares the costs in 2020, 2030, and 2050. This detailed analysis could ultimately be useful for policy makers to understand the potential for Canada to emerge as an exporter of hydrogen as ammonia based on the comparative economics. A life cycle assessment is also included in this analysis. From this techno-economic analysis, the costs for exporting ammonia to Japan in 2020, 2030, and 2050 are, respectively, US$422/tNH3, US$458/tNH3, and US$463/tNH3 for Canada, and US$827/tNH3, US$614/tNH3, and US$497/tNH3 for Australia. The emissions rates for exporting this ammonia to Japan in 2020, 2030, and 2050 are, respectively, 16.0 gCO2/MJ NH3, 27.1 gCO2/MJ NH3, and 15.3 gCO2/MJ NH3 for Canada, and 9.17 gCO2/MJ NH3, 11.6 gCO2/MJ NH3, and 11.2 gCO2/MJ NH3 for Australia. The natural gas prices for Canada and solar/wind farm costs for Australia were the two main determinants of economic costs for their respective pathways. The findings suggests that Canada will have a cost advantage in the short-term for supplying hydrogen as ammonia to candidate countries that are looking to import hydrogen, such as Japan but that market dynamics could change over time. From the life cycle assessment results, Canada would have lower emissions in the present but Australia was found to have lower emissions in the future.