Browsing by Author "Harrop, Alan Robertson"

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    Derivation and Internal Validation of a Prediction Model for Hand Fracture Referral Among Pediatric Patients
    (2019-06-18) Hartley, Rebecca Lauren; Ronksley, Paul Everett; Faris, Peter D.; Fraulin, Frankie O. G.; Harrop, Alan Robertson
    Pediatric hand fractures are common however, which fractures should be referred for specialist care remains unclear. This thesis aimed to develop a prediction model to identify which acute pediatric hand fractures required referral to a hand surgeon. Data was collected on consecutively referred pediatric hand fractures to a plastic surgery clinic over two years. The primary outcome was necessary referral, defined as fractures that required surgery, closed reduction or more than four appointments. Multivariable logistic regression with bootstrapping was used to derive and internally validate a model, which was then translated into a risk index. Of 1,173 fractures, 417 (35.6%) met criteria for a necessary referral. The multivariable model identified six significant predictors: angulation, condylar involvement, dislocation or subluxation, displacement, open fractures, and rotation and had strong performance (C-statistic 0.88). The risk index, with a threshold 1 point, had a sensitivity of 96.4% and specificity of 45.5%. A simple prediction model was developed to identify which acute pediatric hand fractures required referral to a hand surgeon. While these results require external validation prior to clinical use, this tool may help identify high risk patients and allow for targeted referral.
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