A Reduction In Canada’s Freight Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions By 2030 And 2050 A Scenario Analysis
Greenhouse gases (GHG) from Canada’s freight transportation must be reduced by 30% to meet 2030 climate change commitments and by 80% to meet Canada’s 2050 targets. Despite the importance of this sector to Canada’s economy, there is an absence of cost-effective, low carbon options and the pathways to a low carbon future remain undefined. To explore this challenge, the historical emissions profile for rail and road transport in Canada are deconstructed and insights are used to scenario model a low carbon future with a greater share of freight shifted to rail and the energy intensity of road transportation improved. While reducing emissions by 18 Mt CO2e/yr relative to a reference scenario in 2030, the low carbon scenario failed to meet Canada’s reduction targets. The results demonstrate that for Canada to meet its long-term economic and climate change goals, development in disruptive technology, such as alternative fuel systems, is needed.
Lof, J. (2017). A Reduction In Canada’s Freight Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions By 2030 And 2050 A Scenario Analysis (Unpublished report). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB.