FORETELLING THE FUTURE BY ADAPTIVE MODELING
Abstract
Foretelling the future is a pastime that all of us enjoy every
day, but one which is not normally viewed as a scientific activity.
Yet it is often quite possible to predict the future-albeit in a
limited way-and to put the prediction to good use. By supplying an
expected, "normal", course of events, a good prediction focuses attention
on how unfolding events differ from the norm. In many cases this is more
interesting than the events themselves. For example, suppose one computer
is sending a stream of numbers to another. If it is possible to predict
exactly what the next number is going to be, then there is no point in
sending it at all! But suppose the guesses are not so reliable. Then
it may be advantageous to send the difference between the guess and the
actual value of the next number. The receiver-assuming it can make
identical guesses-will be able to reconstruct the correct number from the
difference. If the guesses are good, this scheme will reduce the amount
of information that needs to be sent. In fact, the reduction achieved is
a quantitative measure of success at guessing.
Description
Keywords
Computer Science