Building a Spatial Economic Model for Caracas using PECAS

dc.contributor.advisorHunt, John Douglas
dc.contributor.authorFuenmayor Molero, Geraldine J.
dc.contributor.committeememberBergerson, Joule
dc.contributor.committeememberKattan, Lina
dc.contributor.committeememberMiller, Byron
dc.contributor.committeememberPaez, Antonio
dc.description.abstractSpatial economic models provide a more holistic approach for planning and policy testing. This research explores how well PECAS - a spatial economic model developed in North America-, simulates activity allocation in the context of the rapid growth and high degree of socio-spatial segregation present in Latin America. This is answered by building and calibrating a PECAS model of Caracas, and performing policy sensitivity test with this model. The model was calibrated successfully using a modified version of the standard approach, but it could perform better regarding centrally-located slums and some non-residential spaces, with certain extensions identified as part of this research. Two policy tests were performed with the model: public housing provision and a larger increase in transit fare. The first test indicated that a modest increase in additional housing reduce rents across a range of space types. This benefited renters, but was detrimental to property owners. The second test showed that higher transit fares made households travel less, consume services closer to home with less utility, and relocate such that those out of poverty centralized (with higher rents) and those in poverty decentralized, reinforcing socio-spatial segregation. Higher transport cost benefited some businesses by increasing their market dominance, some change location and production to minimize the impact of wages. This research provides more complete documentation and demonstrates some alternative approaches for the data development and calibration of PECAS models, especially for developing countries. It also delivers some indications regarding the impacts of specific policies in the Caracas context, allowing for a better understanding of its urban system. The application of PECAS in this research brought out the issues around the interpretation of changes in rents and the repercussion for different segments of the population when poverty, high inflation, and partially unregulated developments are involved. This works also identified the potential for improvements in the theoretical formulation of PECAS, specifically in its treatment of the affinity of certain households to live in certain residential types. These would allow PECAS to become a more broadly applicable land use modelling framework for regions in both, developed and developing countries.en_US
dc.identifier.citationFuenmayor Molero, G. J. (2016). Building a Spatial Economic Model for Caracas using PECAS (Doctoral thesis, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada). Retrieved from doi:10.11575/PRISM/25179en_US
dc.publisher.facultyGraduate Studies
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Calgaryen
dc.rightsUniversity of Calgary graduate students retain copyright ownership and moral rights for their thesis. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission.
dc.subjectUrban and Regional Planning
dc.subject.classificationLand Use Modelsen_US
dc.subject.classificationSpatial Economic Modelsen_US
dc.subject.classificationSpatial Allocationen_US
dc.subject.classificationPolicy Sensitivityen_US
dc.subject.classificationActivity Allocationen_US
dc.subject.classificationModelling povertyen_US
dc.subject.classificationSensitivity Testen_US
dc.subject.classificationSpatial Marketsen_US
dc.subject.classificationPopulation Synthesizeren_US
dc.subject.classificationBuilt Formen_US
dc.titleBuilding a Spatial Economic Model for Caracas using PECAS
dc.typedoctoral thesis Engineering of Calgary of Philosophy (PhD)