Understanding the impacts of net-zero electricity in Canada by 2035

Ahmadkhani, Sana

Understanding the impacts of net-zero electricity in Canada by 2035

dc.contributor.advisor	Shaffer, Blake
dc.contributor.author	Ahmadkhani, Sana
dc.contributor.committeemember	Muehlenbachs, Lucija
dc.contributor.committeemember	Tombe, Trevor
dc.date	2023-02
dc.date.accessioned	2023-02-17T20:51:08Z
dc.date.available	2023-02-17T20:51:08Z
dc.date.issued	2023-02-14
dc.description.abstract	Canada is committed to eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from its electricity system. The Clean Electricity Standard (CES) policy intends to enforce a net-zero electricity system by 2035 in which all thermal generators must be ceased. While many parts of Canada are already there, many are not. And the need to grow electricity supply to meet new electrical demand will add to the pressure. The purpose of this paper is to present for the first time in Canada a Python-based generator-level model that will be used to illustrate how 2035 electricity decarbonization will affect thermal capacity, generation, and carbon dioxide emissions. In this thesis, we review electricity markets across Canada and the clean electricity policies in each province. We explore what the 2035 CES policy will mean for the electricity sector in terms of how the policy will truncate the installed capacity and energy produced from thermal generators, and the amount of CO2 released. We discuss what we call the spatial impacts of clean energy policies in terms of where the impacts will most be felt on a regional level in terms of jobs affected. Finally, we discuss opportunities to reduce the adverse community effects of this policy. For our main results, we find that relative to letting thermal power plants live out their current expected lives, the CES policy will truncate 22 percent of fossil capacity-years, reduce 17 percent of CO2 emissions (68 megatonnes from 2035 onwards) and put at risk 21.7 percent of jobs at thermal power plants. Knowing when and where a facility closure will take place can allow targeted deployment of training resources for those in need, long-term budgeting that includes tax revenue losses, and advance planning for transitioning individuals to local jobs in environmental remediation of fossil facilities and new clean electricity generation. The ability of coal mines and other fuel supply to operate at efficient scales in order to stockpile fuel while serving out existing contracts will also be facilitated by clear expectations as to when and where generator retirements will occur.	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Ahmadkhani, S. (2023). Understanding the impacts of net-zero electricity in Canada by 2035 (Master's thesis, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada). Retrieved from https://prism.ucalgary.ca.	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/1880/115868
dc.identifier.uri	https://dx.doi.org/10.11575/PRISM/40759
dc.language.iso	eng	en_US
dc.publisher.faculty	Arts	en_US
dc.publisher.institution	University of Calgary	en
dc.rights	University of Calgary graduate students retain copyright ownership and moral rights for their thesis. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission.	en_US
dc.subject	Electricity	en_US
dc.subject	net-zero policy	en_US
dc.subject	clean electricity policy	en_US
dc.subject	CER	en_US
dc.subject	CES	en_US
dc.subject	energy economics	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Information Science	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Education--Sciences	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Economics--Labor	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Geography	en_US
dc.title	Understanding the impacts of net-zero electricity in Canada by 2035	en_US
dc.type	master thesis	en_US
thesis.degree.discipline	Economics	en_US
thesis.degree.grantor	University of Calgary	en_US
thesis.degree.name	Master of Arts (MA)	en_US
ucalgary.item.requestcopy	true	en_US