A Class of Stochastic Path-Dependent Models and Controls
Date
2024-09-19
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Abstract
This thesis explores controlled stochastic path-dependent differential systems and their applications in stock and energy markets. We first focus on a class of path-dependent stochastic optimal control problems within an infinite-dimensional framework. Our primary contribution is proving that the value function serves as the unique viscosity solution to the corresponding infinite-dimensional stochastic path-dependent Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Then, we investigate the introduction of path-dependent features in stochastic volatility models. The price-storage dynamic is studied in natural gas markets. We propose a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model that incorporates path-dependence into both price volatility and storage increments. Chapter 1 focuses on the stochastic optimal control problem for infinite-dimensional differential systems that incorporate both path-dependence and measurable randomness. Unlike deterministic path-dependent cases, the value function emerges as a random field over the path space, characterized by a stochastic path-dependent Hamilton-Jacobi (SPHJ) equation. We propose a notion of viscosity solution and demonstrate that the value function is the unique viscosity solution to the associated SPHJ equation. Chapter 2 and 3 explores price-storage dynamics in natural gas markets. We introduce a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model that incorporates path-dependence in both price volatility and storage increments. Model calibrations are performed for both price and storage dynamics. Additionally, we address the pricing problem for discrete-time swing options using the dynamic programming principle and propose a deep learning-based method for numerical approximations. A numerical algorithm is presented, accompanied by a convergence analysis of the deep learning approach. Chapter 4 outlines future research directions in stochastic path-dependent Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations, stochastic volatility models, mean field games and stochastic path-dependent filtering problems.
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Keywords
Stochastic path-dependent optimal control theory, Stochastic path-dependent volatility models, Swing option pricing
Citation
Yang, Y. (2024). A class of stochastic path-dependent models and controls (Doctoral thesis, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada). Retrieved from https://prism.ucalgary.ca.