A RISK HYPOTHESIS AND RISK MEASURES FOR THROUGHPUT CAPACITY IN SYSTEMS
Date
2001-03-05
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
A basic risk hypothesis, expressed as a risk equation, for system
throughput capacity (1), and governing all non-growth, non-evolving
agent-directed systems, is proposed and derived. The equation relates
throughput capacity, resource and risk relative to the system environment, for
efficient environments. The risk equation may be combined with, and thus
enhances, a resource-sharing equation relating throughput capacity, resources
and the time required to execute complex coordinated sharing procedures, an
equation derived in an earlier paper. The basic risk equation shows how
expected 1 increases [decreases] linearly with positive [negative] risk of
loss of 1 in efficient environments. The conventional standard deviation risk
measure with respect to the mean, from financial systems, may be used. A
proposed, new, usually equivalent measure, called the mean-expected loss risk
measure with respect to the hazard-free case, is shown to be more approximate
for systems in general. The concept of an efficient system environment is also
proposed. All quantities used in the equation are precisely defined and
their units specified. The equation reduces to a numerical expression, and
can be subjected to experimental test. The equation clarifies and quantifies
basic principles, enabling designers and operators of systems to reason
correctly about system risk.
Description
Keywords
Computer Science