Probability distribution maps for the arbovirus vector Culicoides sonorensis in southern Alberta and Montana under current and future climate scenarios.
Date
2013-08-01
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Abstract
Culicoides sonorensis transmits Bluetongue and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease viruses to ruminants in western North America. This study was conducted to model the current and future distribution of C. sonorensis in Southern Alberta (Canada) and Montana (USA). Data on C. sonorensis, collected from 2002 to 2011, and environmental and climatic variables, chosen based on the ecology of Culicoides spp., were used in the analysis. Under current climatic conditions, the best MaxEnt model selected with the Akaike Information Criterion was built using 50 C. sonorensis presence records and four variables (Elevation, Land Cover, mean Precipitation of May and mean Vapour Pressure Deficit of July). Under future climate scenarios, constructed relying on three Representative Concentration Pathways, a northward expansion of C. sonorensis was predicted by the 2030s and 2050s. Our models can provide information for the development of future vector surveillance and the assessment of disease transmission risk in the region.
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Entomology, Veterinary Science
Citation
Zuliani, A. (2013). Probability distribution maps for the arbovirus vector Culicoides sonorensis in southern Alberta and Montana under current and future climate scenarios. (Master's thesis, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada). Retrieved from https://prism.ucalgary.ca. doi:10.11575/PRISM/27438