The Size and Sources of Municipal Incumbency Advantage in Canada

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dc.contributor.authorLucas, Jack
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-25T20:52:22Z
dc.date.available2019-10-25T20:52:22Z
dc.date.issued2019-10-25
dc.description.abstractThis article uses a new dataset of nearly 2,000 municipal elections from 1874 to 2018 to estimate the size of municipal incumbency advantage in Canada for the first time. Incumbency increases the probability that a candidate will win the next election by more than 30 percentage points and accounts for well over half of overall incumbent success. Incumbency advantage varies modestly by institutional context but varies substantially over time, with a distinct decrease during a period of partisan elections in the mid-twentieth century. These findings represent one of the first estimates of municipal incumbency advantage in an advanced democracy outside the United States and provide a new approach to estimating and comparing incumbency advantage in multi-member and single-member districts. The findings suggest important similarities between Canadian and American municipal elections, demonstrate that incumbency advantage has varied significantly at the municipal level over time, and illustrate the value of historical election data for scholars of urban electoral politics.en_US
dc.description.grantingagencySocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC)en_US
dc.identifier.citationLucas, J. (2019). The Size and Sources of Municipal Incumbency Advantage in Canada. "Urban Affairs Review". 1-29.en_US
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1078087419879234en_US
dc.identifier.grantnumber430-2016-00048en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1880/111169
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1078087419879234
dc.publisherSage Publicationsen_US
dc.publisher.departmentPolitical Scienceen_US
dc.publisher.facultyArtsen_US
dc.rightsUnless otherwise indicated, this material is protected by copyright and has been made available with authorization from the copyright owner. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission.en_US
dc.subjectincumbencyen_US
dc.subjectmunicipal electionsen_US
dc.subjectCanadaen_US
dc.subjecturban politicsen_US
dc.titleThe Size and Sources of Municipal Incumbency Advantage in Canadaen_US
dc.typejournal articleen_US
dc.typepublishedVersionen_US
ucalgary.item.requestcopytrueen_US
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